Holiday KickoffGet the Latest Data & Analysis From the Big Holiday Shopping Kickoff

They’re Here — Initial Stats & Figures From Thanksgiving, Black Friday & Cyber Monday 2025!

The start of the holiday season is always marked by the five-day period spanning from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. By looking at the stats and figures from that shopping blitz, we can get valuable insights for retailers and set the stage for the rest of the season.

Shoppers will generate $253.4 billion dollars in revenue for online retailers this season; an 8.6% increase over last year’s total, according to data published by Adobe:

The holiday season is just getting started, though. There’s still a lot of room for eCommerce merchants to fine tune and make adjustments to ensure that they capture a greater share of that bounty.

So, what else can we learn from looking at the initial stats and figures tied to the 2024 holiday kickoff? We’ve identified some trends and key takeaways based on the data. Check it out below!

eCommerce Spend by Channel

Online spending on Black Friday has more than doubled in the last eight years. This could be partly attributed to inflation, but it also suggests that shoppers are not being deterred by any broader economic concerns when it comes to their holiday shopping lists.

Breaking consumer spending down by day, we see that last year’s trend largely held. Shopping started on Thanksgiving Eve, then gradually ramped up through the weekend, with sales culminating on Cyber Monday.

eCommerce retailers saw year-over-year sales increases of 8.3% and 7.1% on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, respectively. The period between Black Friday and Cyber Monday saw impressive growth, but the YoY change on Thanksgiving was more modest, while the day before Thanksgiving saw no change at all. There could be several reasons for this pattern, including:

In a reversal of trends over the last decade, the entire early-week period may be losing momentum relative to the core Black Friday event. The shopping calendar is consolidating around fewer, more intense shopping moments, rather than spreading evenly across the week.

eCommerce Spend by Channel

Mobile remains the dominant shopping method, with current forecasts predicting that this channel will secure 56.1% of all online spend during the 2025 holiday season.

It’s true that I just offered family time as a potential reason for (relatively) slower sales on Wednesday and Thursday. That said, the temptation to whip out one’s phone and see what deals are on offer while lounging around with the family is always there. Mobile also makes it easy to do a little bit of deal hunting during downtime at work on Friday and Monday, too.

BNPL Spend

Mobile is undoubtedly the leading channel for holiday shoppers this year. But, that doesn’t mean all those sales are going to be conducted using conventional credit or debit cards.

BNPL, or “buy now pay later,” is expected to capture $20.2 billion this season; roughly 7.97% of total spend. That may not seem like a lot at first, but it could have pretty broad implications. To get the right picture, we have to examine why shoppers opt for BNPL at checkout.

Data published by Digital Silk shows that 55% of BNPL users choose it because it allows them to afford things they otherwise couldn't. Just 37% of BNPL users could comfortably use cash or a credit card to pay in full for an emergency, compared to 53% of non-users. So, there could be a “buy what you can't afford now, worry about it later” mentality at play. The growth isn't just about convenience; it's about necessity for a growing segment of shoppers.

I should note that BNPL use isn’t evenly distributed across shoppers, though. It's heavily concentrated among younger, lower-income consumers who may be most vulnerable to payment defaults. Digital Silk further showed that nearly 30% of adults with credit scores between 620 and 659 used BNPL; roughly three times the rate of those with scores above 720.

Meanwhile, nearly 1 in 5 Americans under 45 have used BNPL, compared with just 8% of those 60 and older. More than half of Gen Z (51%) and millennials (54%) say they use BNPL more often than credit cards.

For merchants, this creates a double-edged sword: BNPL drives sales among younger demographics, but also concentrates risk among consumers with less financial cushion. They also have to factor in that BNPL providers typically charge merchants 2-6% per transaction; substantially more than typical credit card processing fees. For many retailers, the boost to conversion and AOV are worth the premium. But, it's a cost that quietly eats into already-thin eCommerce margins.

AI-Driven Commerce

This is perhaps the big story of the year: a 770% year-over-year increase in the share of traffic directed by AI.

AI-enabled search is fundamentally transforming the eCommerce experience. A lot of merchants have been caught off-guard by the rapid changes brought about by the technology, and they’re (understandably) not quite sure about the ramifications just yet. As I see it, here are a few key points that need to be kept in mind:

#1  |  The Attribution Nightmare

AI is disrupting traditional attribution models. 34% of consumers report using AI assistants for product research before searching online for the best deals, suggesting AI is influencing conversions that occur later through traditional search or direct visits. A customer might spend 20 minutes with ChatGPT narrowing down specifications, then go directly to Google or type your URL to complete the purchase.

Your analytics will credit the final touchpoint, not the AI assistant that did the heavy lifting. This means the actual influence of AI is significantly understated in current metrics. This is a problem, as it complicates the metrics you’d rely on for marketing, promotions, and other crucial operations.

#2  |  AI-Driven Shoppers Covert at a Much Higher Rate

Shoppers from AI services were 54% more likely to purchase than those from other referral sources, and some studies show ChatGPT sessions convert at approximately 15.9% compared to approximately 1.8% for organic search.

Like I mentioned above, AI-driven traffic is more often shoppers that are coming mid-funnel, rather than top of funnel. They’ve already worked through decision criteria with the AI before clicking through. So, while still a tiny share of overall activity, the quality makes this traffic incredibly valuable.

#3  |  SEO Isn’t Dead… But it is Changing

Traditional SEO focused on keyword density, backlinks, and domain authority. AI optimization requires something different, though.

When ChatGPT presents shopping results, it processes the query, breaks down the decision criteria, and then surfaces a shortlist of products. Success requires structured data, clear specifications, helpful content that AI can parse and summarize, and presence in the sources AI trusts. Merchants optimizing only for Google while ignoring AI platforms risk becoming invisible to a rapidly growing segment of high-intent shoppers.

#4  |  Category-Specific Performance Gaps

Not all products benefit equally. Electronics, jewelry, personal tech, and home improvement convert highest from AI traffic, as consumers use chatbots to narrow complex specifications. Conversely, apparel, home goods, and grocery show weaker AI conversion rates, likely because these categories benefit more from visual browsing and tactile evaluation.

If you’re selling products where consumers need to compare a lot of specifications and features, then AI presents a golden opportunity. If you’re selling fashion or furniture where aesthetics matter more than specs, AI may remain a minor channel for years.

#5  |  Deployed Agents May be an Advantage (Eventually)

There's a split emerging between merchants who passively receive AI referrals and those actively deploying their own branded AI agents. Retailers who deployed their own branded AI agents on their websites this holiday season are seeing 8.7% year over year growth over the first two days of Cyber Week, compared to 6.4% growth for retailers without agents.

Having your own AI shopping assistant — not just hoping ChatGPT mentions you — may become table stakes for competitive merchants. I really want to emphasize the “may” here, though; there is still a lot of uncertainty around how AI adoption will go over the next couple of years. Everyone is making predictions about the pending burst of the “AI bubble.” So, this might be an area in which you should adopt more of a “wait and see” posture.

Desktop is Driving AI Commerce

Now, one of the more interesting factoids here is that, so far this season, desktops have driven a vast majority of AI referrals. This reveals something crucial about how AI is being used for shopping, running counter to every other eCommerce trend.

While mobile accounts for 60.5% of global web traffic, AI-driven shopping follows a completely different pattern. 76.2% of ChatGPT traffic comes from desktop. More importantly, mobile AI platforms often intercept the first click on citations, showing content previews within their own interfaces, creating a multi-step process where users must click again to reach external websites. This architectural difference means desktop users click through more readily.

All this suggests AI shoppers are in “deep research mode,” sitting at a desk, comparing specifications across multiple tabs, taking their time to evaluate options before purchasing. These aren’t impulse buyers scrolling Instagram on the couch. They’re high-intent researchers who’ve allocated focused time to make considered purchase decisions.

This desktop concentration also means merchants optimizing for AI traffic should think differently. Desktop site experience matters more than usual, and detailed specification pages trump flashy visuals. If AI shopping matures while remaining desktop-heavy, it could reverse the decade-long trend toward mobile-first design… at least for certain high-consideration product categories.

What’s the Takeaway? Here are Our 5 Key Recommendations.

So, now we’ve looked at some of the initial data and key trends. But, if we were to boil it all down into a couple of essential points that merchants should keep in mind, here’s what we’d say:

Get Ready for the New Year Now

Remember: customers tend to initiate chargebacks between 45 and 60 days after making a purchase. So, if shoppers are starting earlier each year, and the distribution of purchases occurs over a wider timeframe, that means we’re looking at an extended period of chargeback issuances after the holiday season, as we outlined in our recently published Chargeback Holiday Handbook guide.

DOWNLOAD THE GUIDE

Global chargeback issuances reached 615 million in 2021. And, there’s been no slowdown in new dispute filings. That’s why merchants need to prioritize risk management measures to mitigate potential losses and maintain financial stability.

With Chargebacks911®, you get access to an end-to-end chargeback management solution. Our advanced platform, driven by data and offering machine learning capabilities, lets you fight revenue drain across three critical fronts:

• Dispute Prevention: Intercept disputes and avoid chargebacks by replying in real-time with additional transaction information or refund confirmation.
• Dispute Recovery: Identify illegitimate disputes and automatically respond using compelling evidence. Reverse chargebacks and recover revenue lost to friendly fraud.
• Dispute Intelligence: Pinpoint the true sources of chargebacks and make informed decisions using the most accurate and actionable data.

With Chargebacks911, you have the unique advantage of a performance-based ROI guarantee, allowing you to take charge of chargebacks without any risk. Treat yourself to a gift that keeps on giving throughout the year. Reach out to Chargebacks911 today and give chargebacks the heave-ho ho ho.