Holiday Shopping StatisticsHow the Holiday Season is Shaping up, by the Numbers

2025 Holiday Shopping Statistics: Key Figures to Know Going into the Sales Season

It starts about this time every year. Shoppers wandering the aisles of mega stores grumbling “It’s not even Thanksgiving yet… why are they putting out holiday stuff so soon?”

You know why, of course.

As a retailer, you work on a different timetable than your customers. Your selling season starts earlier because it ends earlier. Seasonal sales will drop off several days before Christmas itself. Plus, you need to get people thinking about the holidays well ahead of time. Consumers may feel annoyed, but they’re also being reminded that the holidays are right around the proverbial corner. 

And the truth is, by the time you read this, an estimated 45% of consumers will have already started their holiday shopping, according to the National Retail Federation. They’re trying to avoid crowds, of course, but they’re also attempting to spread out tightened budgets (we’ll talk about that next).

As you start your own preparations for the holidays, it’s good to consider how this season could differ from years past. That’s why I wanted to take some time today to look at key holiday statistics from analysts and economists, to give you an idea of what you might be facing in the next few weeks.

Overall Holiday Shopping Projections for 2025

With the roller coaster economy we’ve experienced this year, it’s no surprise that holiday shoppers are coming into the season a little cynical.

Most consumers surveyed (57%) said they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead. An estimated three-quarters of customers are already expecting to find higher prices when they go to buy. That mindset has led gift-givers to lower their planned spending to an average of $890; a 1.3% drop compared to last year.

With tighter budgets, buyers will be looking for value. Note we said value, not just lower prices. A recent CNBC article described consumers as victims of “discount burnout” going into Black Friday and Cyber Monday. When asked to rank buying considerations, however, 30% fewer rated “finding the best deal” as “very important” to their decision. This showed up even in the off-price sector, where deal hunting dropped from the #1 consideration all the way down to 19th place.

Holiday Shopping Statistics: 2025 Online Commerce

Online buying is once again expected to be the hottest market, but growth in that channel has slowed.

The story in digital sales isn’t being written from desks or laptops. mCommerce will be the main shopping platform this season. Experts are expecting a record 56.1% share of online sales to come from mobile devices.

But, even while eCommerce might dominate, surveys show that the tide may be shifting back to local shopping. A recent FedEx report found that 71% of holiday shoppers prefer buying from local retailers, even at higher prices.

Whether they follow through with that or not, customers seem to be looking for a better buying experience. It could also be a matter of trust, though, possibly indicating that they’re starting to take the threat of fraud more seriously. 

With identity theft on the rise, about 64% of Americans say they’re at least moderately concerned about online fraud, specifically during the holidays. We’ll discuss fraud threats in more detail later.

Holiday Shopping Statistics: Consumer Trends

If there is one significant trend in holiday shopping this year, it would be the increasing use of digital assistants.

In 2024, 19% of online purchases globally were influenced by AI agents in some way. And, use of AI‑powered customer service chat rose by 42% during the same period.

It’s ridiculous to think those numbers won’t be higher this year. In fact, Adobe research points to a 520% year over year increase in AI-generated traffic. Not everyone is using it the same way, however:

While Gen Z is quickly incorporating AI-based tools for planning purchases, they also still rely on more traditional social methods. In addition to leveraging AI for gift ideas, 74% of Gen Z buyers also turn to social media/influencers for insight, according to Deloitte.

Direct social purchases are gaining popularity, too. In 2025,  21% of shoppers bought directly from social media platforms. That’s nearly 10% higher than 2024’s figures.

Holiday Shopping Statistics: Logistics & Fulfillment

While it applies at all times, speedy and reliable fulfillment is especially critical during the seasonal sales rush. Customers feel the pressure of their time frame; they’re counting on you to get gifts delivered in time for the festivities.

Free or low-cost shipping has gone beyond being a perk: consumers now expect it. Bazaarvoice reports that 50% of holiday shoppers are likely to buy products that provide free shipping. If you’re not offering this option, buyers can easily click to another online store.

If overall free shipping is too much to absorb, consider adding conditions. Amazon, for example, gives free shipping only to orders over $35 for non-Prime members. Offering expedited shipping for the same cost as regular is another option. The majority of shoppers aged 18-34 admit they’re willing to add extra items to their cart to qualify for free or faster shipping.

Customers could also be seeing buy-online, pick-up in-store (BOPIS) as an acceptable compromise, allowing them to shop online while avoiding shipping fees. BOPIS orders increased significantly, too; according to FedEx data, this channel experienced roughly 7.5% YoY growth during the 2024 holiday period.

It’s also important to understand that consumers are already looking ahead to post-season returns. Per Salesforce, more than $122  billion of global purchases were returned in the 2024 holiday season, and customers are thinking about the possibility of that when they buy.

That means that offering no hassle refunds is another way to entice buyers; one that is likely to be less expensive than free shipping. That said, the NRF reports that retailers expect to lose an earth-shattering $849.9 billion to post-holiday returns. So, proceed with caution.

Holiday Shopping Statistics: Fraud & Security

Fraud attempts spike during the holidays. It doesn’t take a genius to see the connection; fraudsters are drawn to increased holiday sales volume like a kid to a candy bar. More opportunities, more possibilities, more payoff.

Fraud attack rates during the holidays are 15-30% higher than the rest of the year. There are multiple reasons for that, the most obvious being increased activity. The holidays mean more transactions, both online and in-store. That creates more chances for fraudsters to intercept your information, con your customers, or slip through your digital defenses.

The rush to grab deals and snag last-minute gifts can also cause shoppers to be a little careless, not noticing discrepancies that might indicate fraud. You need to be on guard, as well: with a high volume of orders, it’s tempting to skip over details or put off  installing critical security patches. You may also be working with temporary employees, who aren’t trained to spot fraud red flags. It’s easy to make mistakes fulfilling orders, as well.

You can’t afford to let down your guard, especially with numbers like these:

Forewarned Is Forearmed

Statistics like these can give you a leg up on non-informed competitors. Knowing what’s (probably) coming gives you a chance to fine-tune your seasonal sales strategy to protect your revenue, your customers, and your reputation.

Based on what we’ve learned so far, here are a few actionable steps to consider:

• 1. Budgets are tighter, so woo consumers with credible deals that stress value.
• 2. Maintain a clear and consistent message across all sales channels.
• 3. Leverage AI tools for personalized recommendations and dynamic pricing.
• 4. Lean into AI for fraud-prevention tools and secure checkout processes.
• 5. To minimize returns, post accurate product information, including hi-res pictures.
• 6. Whenever possible, offer free shipping or some other shipping deal.
• 7. Establish and stick to order deadlines, expected delivery, and other timelines.
• 8. Prominently post return, refund, and privacy policies.
• 9. Offer hassle-free returns and order tracking to reduce chargebacks.
• 10. Make transaction information organized and easy to search, in case of a dispute.

These are all things you can do to maintain your customers’ trust under normal circumstances. The stakes are higher during the holidays, though: the potential rewards are greater, but so are the risks. When it comes to fraud and chargebacks, a little extra effort can help keep you from becoming just another statistic.